Overview
Carriers, shippers, and consumers alike are nervously awaiting details of the Trump administration’s latest tariff proclamations. In the meantime, we can take a look at how the tension between opportunism and anxiety has built a see-saw effect into June, July, and August on the Transpacific trade.
As many sources have noted, capacity in July is coming to a peak because of a flurry of additional services revealed in the past two months. Carriers and shippers alike have taken due advantage of the early peak season before the exemption on new tariff hikes that is now reportedly being delayed until the 1st of August. The vessels on these new offerings will continue arriving into the West Coast gateway ports in the weeks ahead and bringing that extra capacity along for the ride. Some of these strings have returned for just 1-2 months (see spotlight below).
The planned capacity uptick is further bolstered by the usual ripple of delayed vessel arrivals that will provide an extra foothold against the spike in blank sailings. That said, we do realistically expect to see more blanks announced in August as details on tariff rates are informally and publicly distributed to nations across the globe through Trump’s social media platform. The presumably unfavorable conditions may force smaller carriers like HEDE, TSL, or ACL to shutter their Transpacific or Transatlantic routes.
On an optimistic note, North America is enjoying a period of stability and improvement in terms of schedule reliability; the rush of capacity is yet to create a notable chokehold in key ports like Los Angeles. Congestion has averaged below 20% across American West Coast gateway ports these past 10 weeks, and on-time-performance is making a comeback. More on that below.
Highlights: Far East - West Coast North America
- June saw an 8% rise in on time performance up to 56% and July has so far stayed steady at 54%
- Average arrival delays have not dipped below -2.2 days since -3.5 days in February.
- 180K TEU of net lost capacity in June signalled the lowest losses since January 2025 at the height of the alliance turnovers. There were 20 blank sailings representing 145K TEU.
- July is currently forecasted to see a scant 71K TEU in net capacity loss (19 blanks) and August 125K TEU (26 blanks).
- The total number of unique services rose from 46 in May to 54 in June and July and is expected to drop back down to 51 in August.
Highlights: Far East - East Coast North America
- June saw an 8% rise in on time performance up to 49% and July has so far clocked in at 43%
- Average delays of -2.6 days in June were their lowest since May 2023 which comes just behind with -2.7 days delay.
- 392K TEU of net lost capacity in June signalled the highest losses since November 2023 but was comparably high in April and May. A total of 43 blank sailings comprised 337K TEU.
- July is currently forecasted at 167K TEU in net capacity loss (32 blanks) and August 125K TEU (36 blanks). The total number of unique services rose from 70 in May to 75 in June, 79 in July, and will decrease to 77 in August.
Service Spotlights
Here is a non-exhaustive list of services that have caught our attention and aptly display the on-again-off-again uncertainty of the market in June and July. Please feel free to reach out to our team or visit service pages using the links below for more details.
- HL - PNX was reinstated after 3 years with former operations taking place during the during Covid peak.
- WHL - AA1 was reinstated briefly in June and doubled up in capacity but is suspending again in August.
- HEDE - HDS and HDS2 were showing signs of cancellation back in Q1 but continued on. We covered them briefly in April in Smaller carriers quicker to act on US trade war developments.
- HEDE - HDS3 string was announced at the end of June and commences on July 15.
- TSL - AWC2 was suspended in April, with just a single slot and a single roundtrip voyage.
- KMTC - APX | SLS - AWC | TSL - AWC was never suspended but lost 1.1K in average vessel size since service version 7 commenced in June.
- ZIM - ZX2 was reinstated in late May after less than a month of absence from the suspension in April.
- COSCO - SEA3 | OOCL - PSX was highlighted in COSCO's SEA3 service reinstatement is a powerful microcosm of the 'Trump effect on July 1, but there's still a chance that it could return as Ocean Alliance's short-lived PSW11 if other VSA partners begin showing the schedules.
- GEM - TP9 was also announced at the end of may and commenced on June 23.
- MSC - Pearl-Shikra suspension confirmed July 2. This service notably calls both India & Pakistan so it was doubly at risk for trouble. Suspension is drawn out until October given the incredible length of the roundtrip. This merged version of the former MSC - Shikra, MSC - Pearl, and the MSC - Swan Sentosa commenced as recently as May 10.
- CUL - TP1 will also suspend in late July, having lasted just over a month.
- MSC - Empire | ZIM - ZNS was set to be suspended in July but has since been reinstated, confirmed on May 22.
- OCEAN - PNW2-P || CMA - TWPKS | COSCO - CPNW | EMC - PE2 | OOCL - PNW4 may soon see the departure of CMA as a VSA partner. The carrier continues to publish the service on its flyers but schedules are absent. Similar clues of CMA potentially dropping Transpacific capacity on three South America strings are being closely monitored.
- SLS - PNW was reported to be a new Sealead service and it has been created in the absence of an official advisory as vessel behavior matches the suggested proforma. Commenced on July 4.
- PMR - EC3 || HMM - EC3 | ONE - EC3 | YML - EC3 has seen four vessels forecasted to arrive on the East Coast as far out as September changed to blank sailings, each averaging 13K TEU.
An important clarification regarding the ESL - SCX that was discussed in last week's article: Trump tweet threatens newest venture for Emirates Shipping Lines While it is indeed a new service by our technical definition - it is simultaneously a continuation of the same string that UWL operated alongside Swire Shipping since 2022 that is suspending in August, the Transpacific Express. It should not be considered as new capacity added to meet temporary peak demand during this period.
If you’d like to explore more of our commentary on the trade capacity and network impacts of Trump’s tariff wars, please check out other articles on our News & Analysis page or follow us on Linkedin.
eeSea Signals
- All Far East - North America Services
- All Port Pair Connections + Schedule Reliability Between Asia + United States
- All Monthly North America Updates
- Transpacific set to see record level of ship capacity in July as rates crash by The Loadstar
- Trade Capacity Index + Schedule Reliabilty Evolution by Trade, Port, Carrier, etc. - Tableau Permission Required
- Monthly Expected vs. Actual Capacity by Service - Tableau Permission Required
Note: capacity is measured on the head haul and first discharge port. Net loss includes gains from delayed vessels of the preceding month and inducement calls