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Challenging common concepts of congestion
2025-02-19 11:59

Challenging common concepts of congestion

by Destine Ozuygur •

Congestion may appear to be a straightforward issue, but approaching it as a two-dimensional measure of negative port performance is a disservice to the nuances of schedule reliability. While it is most commonly equated with poor berth planning or crises like labor strikes and political unrest, there can be positive implications for a port that is ‘too busy’ that often go overlooked.

Two fundamental philosophies that we employ when evaluating congestion and providing necessary context for interpretation to our users are:

  • Congestion is a symptom, not a cause.
  • Factors leading to congestion can arise from within, or without, the port itself.

Stakeholders often assume a direct correlation between port operations and ‘bad’ congestion levels. While an influx of vessels at anchorage can surely arise from equipment failure/shortages, rail car delays, and labor strikes, it can also be due to external factors like managing diversions from nearby ports or inclement weather events forcing vessels into the nearest anchorages.

A port like Tacoma that experienced exacerbated congestion in 2024 from a combination of rail delays, being a favorite stopover for vessels avoiding congestion and strikes in Vancouver and Prince Rupert, and hosting chronically unpredictable arrivals from The Alliance’s PN services, is a great example of these internal and external forces at work.

For a quick study of the duality at play here we illustrate how average congestion for select North American ports made headlines for persistent delays in 2024. On the East Coast, Savannah regularly witnessed between 30-50% congestion, and Houston above 20%. On the West Coast, Vancouver is understandably the most extreme example, reaching peaks as high as 85% during the height of the work stoppages in Q4 2024. Oakland and Seattle both witnessed frequent ups and downs, regularly hitting peaks between 30-50% like their East Coast peers. Seattle has some pronounced peaks near 30% in Q1 and Q2 but is far more moderate overall. Long Beach and Los Angeles share in these relatively low congestion levels but had well documented delays resulting from long rail car dwell times; another indicator that operational setbacks at port are not always mirrored by congestion levels.

West Coast Highlight - Port Congestion Weekly Timeline - 2024 6RrFDR2GWNtx0g01rX0RuHhbQXxA4WAODuH07il3.png

East Coast Highlight - Port Congestion Weekly Timeline - 2024 QsBc5ugIFjvuFlaMkNpq3Bh66XdXNbDLnf6gzXPB.png

To build on our understanding that congestion related delays do not exclusively entail a shortage of turnover, we demonstrate how these same ports (excepting Vancouver) reported strong, and even some record throughput, at the end of the fiscal year:

The ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Seattle, and even Vancouver (Q2 + Q3) also saw an improvement in their reliability ratings in our quarterly Schedule Reliability Scorecard (SRS) evaluations for 2024. In fact, Far East - West Coast North America was one of the few trades burdened with no shortage of both abstract and tangible setbacks that was able to achieve stabilization and even make the first steps in a comeback for a year that saw heavy global reliability decline.

To review some of the finer points, the questions that we’ve built into our regular internal discourse include:

  • What about vessels that are waiting because they arrived ahead of schedule and are not delayed due to inefficient berth management?
  • How about ports that have relatively high congestion, but also a healthy turnover rate?
  • More specifically, how long does each vessel wait on average?
  • How can we disentangle vessels that are waiting to berth vs. those that have completed discharge operations and are lingering in the area?
  • What about vessels harboring from poor weather conditions?

It is with these questions in mind that our team continually develops integrated layers of schedule reliability measurement. By critically assessing the speed and relative position of vessels alongside the captain's next port, live eeSea forecasts, vessels’ historic timelines, and the broader schedule reliability of services and ports - we are able to present a more holistic analysis of each scenario on a case-by-case basis.

We urge our readers and users to approach these complex realities with flexibility and of course to make use of eeSea’s Tableau universe and the TrueTransit module on the web-app to develop a better understanding. As always, we also welcome you to reach out directly with thoughts, suggestions, and inquiries about our services and methodology.

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