Analysis by Rizaldie Zambra Jr, Xeneta Analyst for transatlantic service operations.
For the past four weeks, the North Atlantic has been anything but predictable. A series of intense winter storms sweeping across Northern and Western Europe have created one of the most disruptive starts to the year for transatlantic trade. Gale-force winds, heavy seas, and repeated low-pressure systems have forced carriers to slow steam, reroute vessels, take shelter, and, sending ripple effects all the way to the East Coast North America.
Reported Atlantic storm fronts, with waves exceeding 8–10 meters in the Bay of Biscay and sustained winds above 50 knots in exposed areas of the English Channel, and the North Sea severely impacted vessels traveling between Europe and Canada.
Among the hardest hit was the MSC – Canada Express service, where vessels arrived in Montreal up to 10 days delayed, MSC JOY, between January 22 and January 24, she took shelter in the Irish Sea, waiting out the worst of the storm conditions. Rather than risk the notoriously volatile Bay of Biscay, the vessel rerouted north of Ireland, a longer but safer passage that added days to the voyage.
The COSCO – GEX2 service experienced similar disruption. Vessels were delayed by as much as eight days, with the MONTREAL EXPRESS drifting in the English Channel from January 25 to January 31 to avoid severe weather. Once conditions allowed, she proceeded cautiously, routing south of Ireland and steaming north of the Bay of Biscay. She will arrive at Montreal on Feb 11.
On the COSCO – GEX1 service, vessels arriving in Montreal up to five days late due to weather routing and enforced speed reductions. The TORONTO EXPRESS illustrates the compounding effect of these disruptions: despite omitting her Bremerhaven call on January 10, she still arrived in Montreal nearly six days behind schedule, finally berthing on January 29.
As weather-related delays stacked up, some carriers turned to port swaps. On the CMA – SL1 | Maersk – CAE service, CMA CGM PARANAGUA saw her Halifax arrival pulled forward from February 11 to February 5, while her Montreal call was pushed from February 6 to February 8.
Following plans for a port swap between Halifax and Montreal, MSC – Med Canadian has finalized the schedule of MSC KILIMANJARO IV with the omission of Halifax call on February 20. The vessel is now scheduled to arrive in Montreal on February 16, highlighting the volatility of ETAs in the transatlantic trade.
Vessels are still being observed rerouting via the Irish Sea and avoiding the Bay of Biscay, as seen with MSC NAHARA over the weekend. The vessel is scheduled to arrive in Montreal on 17 February, having departed from Le Havre. She is under the MSC - Canada Express service.
In total, over 15 transatlantic services have been affected by the ongoing winter weather, spanning nearly every major alliance and operator on the Europe–Canada and Europe–US East Coast corridors. Impacted services include but are not limited to:
- CLI – Europe–Canada
- HL – AL7 | ZIM – ZCA
- NRNT – ECCE
- COSCO – GEX2 | HL – AT2 | OOCL – GEX2
- COSCO – GEX1 | HL – AT1 | MSC – Montreal Express 1 | OOCL – GEX1
- MSC – Canada Express
- CMA – MEDCAN | EMES – MCA | HL – MCA | Maersk – MMX
- MSC – Med Canadian
- MSC – EMUSA
- ACL – A
- GEM – AL1 | EMC – TAE3 | HL – AL1 | Maersk – TA3
- CMA – SL1 | Maersk – CAE
- CMA – AMERIGO | COSCO – MENA | ONE – AT4 | OOCL – WMA | YML – AL6 | ZIM – ZCI
- CMA – TUX | COSCO – EMA | ONE – EMA | OOCL – EMA
- CMA – VICTORY | COSCO – EAG | EMC – TAE3 | ONE – AT3 | OOCL – ATG
Beyond the transatlantic trade, transpacific services calling the US East Coast and Eastern Canada are also affect in the the North Atlantic Ocean crossing.
In the days ahead, further delays are anticipated, alongside continued ETA volatility as vessels adjust speeds in response to adverse weather conditions.
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