Our UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2015 has been launched today. Overall, my personal take is that there is quite some good news in it: Seaborne trade and the world fleet continue to grow. Developing countries have expanded their market share, both as users and providers of shipping services. The world fleet is modernizing, reducing some of the environmental impact of shipping. Global ad valorem freight costs have gone down by about 2 percentage points in the last two decades.
But not all countries and players are benefiting from these global trends.
- Larger ships may help improve fuel efficiency on the sea-side, but they also pose challenges to ports and hinterland connections. This is not only the case for the new mega-container ships, but due to the cascading effect applies to most markets.
- Alliances and larger ships help reduce operational costs for carriers, but not all cost savings are passed on to clients, especially in thin markets where the process of concentration can lead to oligopolistic market conditions. The number of countries with only three or fewer liner companies calling at their seaports has gone up by almost half since 2004.
- Developing countries have significantly expanded their share in global imports. As a group, they are no longer just providers of raw materials. However, a lot of this global trend is due to China and other Asian countries, while many African and least developed countries are still not participating in global value chains.
- Average global transport costs are going down, yet the difference between developed countries (who pay the least) and countries in Africa and Oceania has actually increased.
- Low freight rates are certainly good news for shippers, but many carriers will find them too low to cover their costs. Some carriers’ solution is to invest in larger and more modern ships. This will help them to reduce their own operational costs – but as long as the older ships are not scrapped, the global oversupply will remain.
- Shipping continues to be the mode of transport with the lowest environmental impact per ton-mile. At the same time, the need to mitigate and adapt to climate change will need to involve shipping, too – the mode of transport that moves 80 per cent of global trade volumes.
The complete Review is available to download free of charge via http://unctad.org/rmt. We have expanded the coverage of our on-line annexes, including seaborne trade, the nationally flagged fleet, fleet ownership, shipbuilding and scrapping, port traffic, and our two liner shipping connectivity indexes LSCI and LSBCI, all available via http://stats.unctad.org/maritime.
Infographic and cover source: UNCTAD, prepared by Arantxa Sanchez
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this post are personal.
Source: Jan Hoffmann LinkedIn post
Source: Jan Hoffmann LinkedIn post