Of more than 6.6K container vessels on the map, 1,397 of the currently active fleet were built by Chinese shipyards. If we exclude smaller sized vessels on feeder and intraregional trades, that means more than 4.9 Million TEU globally have the potential to be targeted by Trump’s tariffs.
Hardest hit will of course be primary E/W routes out of Asia. The 50 vessels totalling 195K TEU that are currently deployed to Europe - North America services making US port calls are eclipsed by the 98 vessels tipping 698K TEU on Far East - North America trade.
If we briefly look at how the tariffs would be distributed by total number of US port calls per service, we can create a list of candidates where carriers may assess how to tactically shuffle their deployment lineup by swapping for vessels of similar sizes and non-Chinese builds in order to curb these fees to the maximum extent.
A total of 40% of the vessels currently deployed on the Transpacific trade call just 1 US port per round trip, 12% call 2, and 20% make 3 stops in the US. Notable examples of the remaining 18% of deployments that call 4+ US ports per roundtrip include the following RTW services:
- ZIM - ZXB which is due for suspension in late April, is a 12 slot RTW service with 4 actively assigned vessels that fall into this tariff category averaging at 7K TEU. Makes 4 US port calls.
- MSC - EMERALD | ZIM - ZXB partnership is on track to replace the standalone ZIM service and MSC’s 2M collaboration since February 10 and has planned for 5 US port calls. It currently has 2 out of 4 actively assigned vessels and 12 total slots that could be subject to these fees, at an average 7K TEU.
- COSCO - IPE2 | HMM - IAX | ONE - WIN has 3 of 11 slots that would be targeted by these tariffs, averaging at 7K TEU and calling 5 US ports.
- OCEAN - PSW3 & AWE3 hosts a whopping 21 total slots and 6 US port calls with vessels averaging 14K TEU. There are 3 CMA CGM operated vessels that are currently assigned which would be subject to fines.
Chinese built vessels on Far East - North America making 4+ US port calls
As these events continue to unfold, we will ask questions like which vessel operators will shoulder the brunt of this cost, and what percentage of their total fleet consists of Chinese built vessels? Are there non-Chinese operators that are particularly hard hit victims by association? Is there wiggle room to cleverly navigate these new seas through an agile manipulation of vessel assignments, or are there some carriers that will inevitably see a loss of business from American shippers? If flexible deployments prove to be too cumbersome to implement, will some carriers look to refactor the routes themselves?
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