The following release was published by Maersk:
Regional insights and information to keep your logistics ahead of the curve. This month, we explore the evolving global economic landscape, shaped by solid U.S. growth and Europe starting to emerge from a prolonged slowdown. The global shipping market, although still fragile, is starting to balance as we look towards Q4. Our September market update dives into these trends, highlights the latest developments on the Network of the Future and our cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd, and share insights into how Maersk is navigating regional challenges, from congestion at transshipment hubs to increasing air freight demand in the Mekong region.
Market Trends
- Global economic growth has remained strong in the first half of 2024, with full-year growth expected to average around 2.7%. The Global Composite PMI indicates favourable economic conditions, particularly in advanced economies. However, momentum in the Manufacturing PMI weakened in July, dipping below the neutral 50 mark due to a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing activity.
- Concerns about the U.S. economy are not expected to significantly derail growth with U.S. GDP projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024. Goods spending picked up in the second quarter, and retail sales continued to grow above trend, marking a 2.7% year-over-year increase in July.
- In Europe, the region is gradually emerging from a prolonged period of stagnation, with GDP growth forecasted to reach 0.8% in 2024. Retail sales increased by 0.7% in Q2, supported by wage growth and improving consumer confidence.
- In China, economic momentum has softened, but GDP growth is still expected to be around 4.8% for the year. While producer prices have fallen, increased investment in manufacturing may lead to overcapacity. Nevertheless, robust export activity remains a key driver of China’s economic growth. Global economy: manufacturing export orders remain below the 50 thresholds in July, casting doubts on the strength of the ongoing recovery in industrial activity.
Note: 1) Global Private Consumption includes both goods and services 2) Q2 2024 data for Global Private Consumption and Global Fixed Investment are estimates Source: J.P. Morgan, Oxford Economics, Internal Ocean Container Market estimations as of Jul 2024, Maersk calculations, Seabury
Trending Topic – The Network of the Future The “Network of the Future” between A.P. Moller – Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd AG sets a target for above 90% schedule reliability and is set to kickoff in February 2025.
In January 2024, Hapag-Lloyd AG (Hapag-Lloyd) and Maersk A/S (Maersk) announced a new longterm operational collaboration under the name of Gemini – referred to as the “Gemini Cooperation”. The operational collaboration covers the Ocean freight network on East West trades and will come into effect on February 1st, 2025.
This partnership aims to provide a highly reliable and sustainable ocean network that covers Asia / US West Coast, Asia / US East Coast, Asia / Middle East, Asia / Mediterranean, Asia / North Europe, Middle East – India / Europe and Transatlantic trade scopes. On 10 September, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd released a network update covering operational insights into how the network has evolved since announcement, and presenting an alternative Cape of Good Hope network due to the on-going conflict in the Red Sea. It will offer you a best-in-class East-West Ocean network, with an ambition of industry-leading unprecedented reliability, speed to market, and geographical coverage, all while continuing to support decarbonization and our goal of being net-zero in the future.
What the Network of the Future offers you The Network of the Future is an innovative network powered by leaner loops with fewer port calls per service, an extensive shuttle network, and industry-leading hubs. With the new network, our ambition is to deliver a flexible and well-connected ocean network that aims to provide unmatched and industry-leading reliability above 90 percent (as measured by SeaIntel) when the new network is fully phased in. We are designing the new East-West network with the ambition of making an unparalleled improvement to schedule reliability.
Source: Maersk