Welcome to eeSea by Xeneta's monthly global schedule reliability update, where we take a closer look at how geopolitical and macroeconomic constraints are shaping on-time performance across trades, alliances, and carriers.
Highlights
- Q3 has closed out at 36% on-time percentage, a 20% improvement against the start of the year but far short of an optimistic outlook.
- Gemini Cooperation continues to lead global reliability but also shows signs of wear on Far East – Europe, closing September with 81% of on-time arrivals.
- East Coast South America’s comeback quickly turned into a nosedive, bringing it down to 32% on-time percentage after losing 39% of reliability in just two months.
Global
Global reliability based on on-time percentage has seen a slight decline and rests at 35% in August and September, down from 38% in July. This was accompanied by average delays of -3.6 days in September as well as the Q3 average. Despite objectively poor on-time percentage, Q3 has wrapped up with 20% more on-time arrivals than Q1 and has held steady at 36% OTP since Q2. Current trends show no sudden or drastic drops in global reliability.
Monthly global reliability
Trades
The widening gap in trade level on-time percentage has become increasingly pronounced since the close of Q2.
Far East - Europe continued to host the worst trade reliability at 23% OTP in September, a slight uptick from its lowest point of 17% in August. Months of persistent Northern European port congestion troubles, longer and more volatility prone transits around the Cape of Good Hope, and larger capacity vessels contributing to increased berth dwells have shaped the ongoing struggles of this major E/W lane since the start of 2025.
In an acute development, East Coast South America experienced a sharp decline since our last report, where we cited evidence of a steady rebound since Q3 2024. The trade has lost 39% of reliability since July, closing out September with 32% OTP and nearly 24 hours of additional delay. An increase in vessel wait times and persistent congestion levels above 50% at major ports like Paranagua and Rio Grande may be tied to the tail-end of the seasonal surge in agricultural exports. Historically, on-time arrivals for East Coast South America have notably dropped in September to 29% and 10% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Monthly trade reliability
West Coast South America is yet to resume its familiar position in first place and now comes in just behind Europe – North America. The transatlantic trade has seen a steady ascent from 28% up to 49% in September, emerging as the global leader in reliability.
Alliances
Premier Alliance's performance has continued to decline against its global Q2 average of 26% - closing this past quarter with 21% on-time percentage. Ocean Alliance has also reached a significant low point, averaging 24% in Q3. This is the poorest on-time percentage for the longstanding alliance since its 27% average in Q4 2022.
Quarterly alliance reliability
Gemini Cooperation continues to lead alliance reliability and closed out Q3 at 81% on-time arrivals across all trades. The graph below illustrates an average 92% reliability on Europe – North America where conditions are most favorable, followed by 88% on its global shuttle services. Far East - Europe continues to be a challenge even for the low transit times and flexibility offered by the super hub and spoke model of this alliance. Reliability continues to decline with 68% at the close of Q3 against an average 82% in Q2, a 17% drop in reliability.
Gemini Cooperation monthly reliability details
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